The War In Ukraine
How will the war progress
Putin’s plan was to replay Crimea in 2014 in Ukraine. He needs
- A swift conquer of the major cities including the capital Kyiv
- The flee of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government
- Maintain a puppet regime that’s accepted by Ukrainians
Neither is likely to happen at this point. The strong resistance from Ukrainians, following their brave President, inspired the whole country and mobilized the whole world to fight against Putin the dictator. With Russia’s military advantage, Putin may still conquer the country in some way, if he is willing to pay the hefty price. But it’s virtually impossible that he can sustain a puppet regime meaningfully long. All his effort will thus be in vain.
In fact, Putin faces not only resistance from outside, but even Russian citizens are also against him; there are anecdotes that Russian soldiers are unwilling to fight at all. According to The Art Of War and wars in history, invaders facing universal hatred— exactly the situations of the Russian army today — can be defeated by 1/10 of the absolute military power. Ukrainians are less disadvantageous by themselves and have material support from the rest of the world when Putin faces strong sanctions. Therefore, it’s not unrealistic at all that Putin’s army will collapse before conquering Ukraine. I deeply hope so.
Kremlin’s shills and how to respond to them
Putin had been preparing for his invasion months ago. Kremlin has created propaganda to undermine Ukraine, the EU, and NATO. Of course, those theories are either logically or factually false. But in case anyone needs to dispute them, below is my response.
The aggression of NATO left Russia no choice
NATO is a defense-only alliance and has voluntary membership. Ukraine and its people have the right to choose to join NATO. No other country has the right to dictate their decision. The majority of the Ukrainians had voted to join NATO; now we all know why. Russian Federation, as we have seen, has a different mechanism of joining
Can the U.S. allow Mexican or Canada to join an organization like Warsaw Pact?
Like the above, only Mexicans have the right to decide. It’s not the U.S. or any other countries’s power to allow.
President Zelenskyy is a comedian and Putin is a horseback hero
Zelenskyy, the comedian, rejected the offer to flee by saying “I need ammunition, not a ride” and risked his life in the frontline, along with his family, against the second-largest army in the world.
At the same time, Putin the horseman is hiding in his remote bunker. Claiming and posturing as a hero doesn’t make you one. If you know about weight training, you will see Putin even work out as an imposter.
Both Ukrainians and Russians are Slavic so Ukraine is part of Russia
By the same logic, Germany should own Swiss and the U.S can invade Canada.
Ukraine is historically part of Russia
Firstly, using history to justify territorial claims is nonsense. Secondly, this claim is wrong by itself. Ukraine is a nation with more than a thousand years of history, and Kyiv was already a major metropolis when Moscow was not even a village.
Putin will nuke us if we don’t comply
He will regardless since he is crazy. In fact, given Putin made nuclear threats on Feb 27th because of the sanctions, military action against him should follow. Because military action won’t have further downside from a risk management perspective. Also, his threats showed that the sanctions were hurting him badly. This is a surprise since he should have been preparing for them.
The audacity of hope
Being a Chinese citizen, I was furious at the beginning of the war by the response of the Chinese government and their narratives that supported Putin’s invasion. Many of those are shared by my Chinese acquaintances. Never have I been so ashamed by China.
Later on, I managed to unidentify with my Chinese citizenship; then I begin to understand that all humans are easily influenced by propaganda, especially those designed by an autarchic government with the help of modern technology. Many Chinese becoming Kremlin apologists is thus not a surprise at all.
But after putting my view to the whole Planet Earth, I see overwhelmingly positivity.
- Ukraine showed immense bravery and commitment to defend their home, against a power that was predicted will destroy them in one or two days. And they are winning!
- The world is so encouraged by the Ukrainians and overwhelmingly united to help them, to stand up against the mighty dictator.
- Even the Russians protested against Putin domestically, knowing the pricy consequence.
- Putin is frustrated and humiliated by his miscalculation, the failure of his terror campaign, and the isolation from the whole world.
What should we do
The struggle in Ukraine is not a political issue on which the rest of us can stay neutral. It’s a matter of humanity whose outcome will shape the future of mankind. The moment to stand up and be counted is now. For the least, let’s all do the following:
- Help Ukraine in whatever way, like donation and protesting against the war
- Show your support on social media, share the inspiring support from others
- Dispute the lies from Kremlin’s shills and apologists in social media. This is not a time for tolerance to different opinions. It’s the moment of humanity against terrorism
- Lastly, live a healthy life, outlive those bad guys. Pray for the brave Ukrainians every day
Reference
- Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war — Yuval Noah Harari
- Miscellanea: Understanding the War in Ukraine
